REPORT: Failure to Pass One Big Beautiful Bill Will Kill 1.1+ Million Manufacturing Jobs

6/12/2025

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Action Summary

Job Loss Concerns: Failure to extend the Trump Tax Cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill could result in the loss of over 1.1 million manufacturing jobs and nearly six million jobs overall.
Pass-Through Deduction Impact: The expiration of the 20% pass-through deduction at the end of 2025 threatens small businesses, which make up more than 96% of U.S. businesses, impairing their ability to grow, create jobs, and invest.
Small Business Investment: The tax reform measures, including a reduction in the top tax rate and the pass-through deduction, have provided essential tax savings that have enabled small manufacturers to invest in new equipment and expand operations.
Accelerated Depreciation Risk: Without Congressional action, accelerated depreciation will vanish from the U.S. tax code for the first time in decades, complicating manufacturers’ efforts to invest in necessary equipment and machinery.
Family-Owned Business Challenges: A reduction in the estate tax exemption threshold could expose more family-owned manufacturing assets to taxation, threatening the sustainability of these critical community pillars.

Risks & Considerations

The potential expiration of the Trump Tax Cuts could lead to significant job losses in the manufacturing sector, which may indirectly affect Vanderbilt University by reducing the economic stability of the region and potentially impacting enrollment and funding opportunities.
The loss of the 20% pass-through deduction could hinder small businesses’ ability to grow and invest, which may affect partnerships and collaborations that Vanderbilt has with local businesses and industries.
The absence of accelerated depreciation could limit manufacturers’ investments in new equipment and technology, potentially reducing opportunities for research and development collaborations with Vanderbilt.
The reduction of the estate tax exemption threshold could threaten the viability of family-owned businesses, which are integral to the local economy and community engagement efforts of the university.

Impacted Programs

Vanderbilt’s Owen Graduate School of Management may need to adjust its curriculum to address changes in tax policy and its impact on business strategy and operations.
The School of Engineering could see a decrease in industry partnerships and funding for research projects if manufacturers face financial constraints due to increased tax burdens.
Community Engagement Initiatives might be affected as local businesses, particularly family-owned ones, face financial challenges, potentially reducing their ability to support community projects and collaborations with Vanderbilt.

Financial Impact

The expiration of tax cuts could lead to a decrease in donations and funding from alumni and local businesses who are financially impacted, affecting Vanderbilt’s financial health and its ability to fund scholarships and research.
Vanderbilt may need to explore alternative funding sources and partnerships to mitigate the potential decrease in financial support from the manufacturing sector.
Changes in the economic landscape could influence the university’s investment strategies and endowment management, requiring careful financial planning and risk assessment.

Relevance Score: 4 (The potential expiration of tax cuts presents high risks involving major transformations in financial strategies and community partnerships.)

Key Actions

Vanderbilt’s Business School should conduct research on the potential impacts of the expiration of the Trump Tax Cuts on small businesses, particularly in the manufacturing sector. This research can provide valuable insights into how these changes might affect local economies and job markets, positioning Vanderbilt as a thought leader in economic policy analysis.
The Office of Federal Relations should engage with policymakers to advocate for the preservation of tax reforms that benefit small and family-owned businesses. By aligning with industry groups and other educational institutions, Vanderbilt can play a role in shaping legislative outcomes that support economic growth and stability.
Vanderbilt’s Center for Entrepreneurship should explore opportunities to support small businesses and family-owned manufacturers through educational programs and partnerships. By offering workshops, mentorship, and resources, the center can help these businesses navigate potential tax changes and continue to thrive.
The Department of Economics should analyze the broader economic implications of the potential loss of the pass-through deduction and accelerated depreciation. This analysis can inform public discourse and policy decisions, enhancing Vanderbilt’s reputation as a leader in economic research.
Vanderbilt’s Alumni Relations Office should connect with alumni who own or operate small businesses to understand their concerns and provide support. By fostering a strong network of business leaders, Vanderbilt can strengthen its community ties and offer valuable resources to its alumni.

Opportunities

The potential expiration of the Trump Tax Cuts presents an opportunity for Vanderbilt’s Law School to offer legal clinics focused on tax law and estate planning for small and family-owned businesses. By providing pro bono services, the law school can support local businesses and enhance its community engagement efforts.
Vanderbilt can capitalize on the increased need for economic analysis by hosting conferences and public forums on the implications of tax policy changes. These events can attract policymakers, industry leaders, and academics, further establishing Vanderbilt as a hub for economic thought leadership.
The emphasis on preserving competitive tax rates for small businesses aligns with Vanderbilt’s commitment to supporting entrepreneurship and innovation. The university can develop new programs and initiatives that foster business growth and job creation, enhancing its impact on the local and national economy.

Relevance Score: 4 (The potential expiration of tax cuts requires major process changes and presents significant opportunities for Vanderbilt’s programs and community engagement.)

Average Relevance Score: 2.4

Timeline for Implementation

Pass-through deduction expires completely at the end of 2025.
Estate tax exemption threshold reduction takes effect at the end of 2025.

The shortest deadline is the end of 2025, meaning compliance is required in more than 180 days from the issuance date.

Relevance Score: 1

Impacted Government Organizations

Congress: The report emphasizes that failure to extend the tax relief measures will lead to significant job losses, placing the onus on legislative action.
Department of the Treasury: Many of the discussed tax provisions, such as the pass-through deduction, accelerated depreciation, and estate tax thresholds, fall under the purview of the Treasury.
Internal Revenue Service (IRS): As the agency responsible for administering and enforcing the tax laws highlighted in the report, the IRS is directly impacted.

Relevance Score: 2 (Between 3 and 5 agencies are affected by the implications of the tax policy changes outlined in the report.)

Responsible Officials

U.S. Congress – The report recommends that Congress act to extend specific tax benefits (e.g., the pass-through deduction and accelerated depreciation) and preserve a higher estate tax exemption, making Congress the body responsible for considering and enacting these measures.

Relevance Score: 1 (Although the report urges legislative action, the directives do not impose implementation requirements on executive agencies or high-level executive officials.)