MEMO: First 100 Days Economy

4/29/2025

Action Summary

  • Jobs Statistics:
    • Total of 345,000 jobs created since January, with 54% (188,000) in non-government and government-adjacent sectors.
    • Sector breakdown includes 2,000 mining/logging, 27,000 construction, and 9,000 manufacturing jobs (contrasting recent monthly manufacturing losses).
    • Federal government workforce reduced by 15,000 jobs; remote work for federal employees decreased by over 16 percentage points, aligning with private sector trends.
    • Labor force participation for individuals without a high school diploma increased by 0.7% and veteran unemployment dropped from 4.2% to 3.8%.
    • March saw 228,000 jobs created, marking one of the top months for private payroll growth in two years.
  • Inflation Statistics:
    • Prescription drug prices down over 2%, with the most recent drop being the largest ever recorded.
    • Gasoline prices fell by 7% (CPI), and energy prices declined by 2% since President Trump took office.
    • Wholesale egg prices have decreased by about 50%, with further consumer price relief expected in the coming months.
    • February showed the smallest annual increase in core inflation in over four years; recent CPI prints came in below expectations with March marking only the second monthly decline in the past 2.5 years.
    • In contrast to high inflation under the previous administration, significant relief is being experienced by consumers.
  • Miscellaneous Economic Statistics:
    • Real average hourly earnings up by 0.4% for middle- and low-income workers and up 1% in the manufacturing sector.
    • The automotive sector recorded the biggest one-month increase in auto sales in more than a year.
    • Mortgage rates have dropped roughly four-tenths of a percentage point, potentially saving new homebuyers approximately $32,400 over the life of a 30-year loan.
    • Industrial production reached its seventh-highest monthly level in March, with significant new investment pledges totaling at least $5 trillion from foreign governments and private companies.
  • Economic Policy Wins:
    • Immediate blocking of Biden-era unfinalized rules, saving over $180 billion overall (around $2,100 per family of four over the next decade).
    • Rollbacks include the EPA’s tailpipe emission rules ($667 billion in savings) and DOT’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards ($88 billion in savings), totaling nearly $11,000 saved per family over the coming decade.
    • An aggressive 10-to-1 deregulatory initiative has been implemented, reversing multiple regulations per new rule and building on successful precedents from President Trump’s first term.
    • Over 20 significant deregulatory actions (executive orders, memoranda, and proclamations) have been issued to streamline federal regulations.

Risks & Considerations

  • The reduction in federal government jobs and the emphasis on private sector job growth could impact Vanderbilt University’s federal funding opportunities, particularly if there is a shift in priorities away from government-supported research and education initiatives.
  • The decrease in remote work among federal employees may influence Vanderbilt’s own policies on remote work and telecommuting, potentially affecting faculty and staff work arrangements.
  • The deregulation efforts, particularly in environmental and transportation sectors, could pose challenges for Vanderbilt’s sustainability initiatives and research programs focused on environmental protection and climate change.
  • The economic policy changes, including the rollback of regulations, may lead to shifts in funding and research priorities, requiring Vanderbilt to adapt its strategic focus to align with new federal priorities.

Impacted Programs

  • Vanderbilt’s Research Programs may need to adjust to changes in federal funding priorities, particularly in areas related to environmental regulations and transportation standards.
  • The Office of Federal Relations at Vanderbilt may need to increase its advocacy efforts to ensure continued support for higher education and research funding amidst the deregulatory environment.
  • Vanderbilt’s Human Resources department may need to review and potentially revise remote work policies in response to changing federal norms and expectations.
  • The School of Engineering could see opportunities to engage in research and development projects related to the automotive sector and energy efficiency, given the growth in these areas.

Financial Impact

  • The potential reduction in federal funding for research and education could impact Vanderbilt’s budget and financial planning, necessitating a reevaluation of funding sources and strategic priorities.
  • Vanderbilt may experience increased competition for private sector funding and partnerships as federal support shifts towards deregulation and private sector growth.
  • The economic savings projected from deregulation could lead to changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics, potentially affecting Vanderbilt’s economic and business research initiatives.
  • Opportunities may arise for Vanderbilt to secure funding for research in areas aligned with the administration’s deregulatory and economic growth priorities, such as energy efficiency and automotive innovation.

Relevance Score: 3 (The changes present moderate risks involving compliance and potential shifts in funding priorities.)

Key Actions

  • Vanderbilt’s Economic Research Department should analyze the impact of job creation in non-government sectors and the reduction of federal jobs on the local economy and potential employment opportunities for graduates. This analysis can help tailor career services and job placement strategies to align with current market trends.
  • The Office of Federal Relations should monitor changes in federal telework policies and their alignment with private sector practices. Understanding these shifts can inform Vanderbilt’s own remote work policies and ensure competitive positioning in attracting and retaining talent.
  • Vanderbilt’s Financial Aid Office should assess the potential impact of declining inflation and energy prices on student cost of living and financial aid needs. Adjusting financial aid packages accordingly can help maintain affordability and accessibility for students.
  • The Vanderbilt Center for Transportation and Operational Resilience should explore research opportunities related to the rollback of tailpipe emission rules and CAFE standards. Engaging in this research can position Vanderbilt as a leader in sustainable transportation solutions.
  • Vanderbilt’s Business School should evaluate the implications of the deregulatory initiatives on business operations and entrepreneurship. Offering courses or workshops on navigating regulatory changes can enhance the curriculum and support aspiring entrepreneurs.

Opportunities

  • The executive order presents an opportunity for Vanderbilt’s School of Engineering to engage in research and development of energy-efficient technologies, leveraging the focus on reducing energy prices and emissions. Collaborations with industry partners can enhance research impact and funding opportunities.
  • Vanderbilt can capitalize on the increased investment in the U.S. by fostering partnerships with foreign governments and private companies. This could include joint research initiatives, student exchange programs, and collaborative projects, enhancing Vanderbilt’s global reach and reputation.
  • The emphasis on reducing prescription drug prices offers an opportunity for Vanderbilt’s Medical Center to engage in policy analysis and advocacy. By providing evidence-based recommendations, the center can influence healthcare policy and improve patient outcomes.
  • By engaging with the broader economic community and policymakers, Vanderbilt can position itself as a leader in the national conversation on economic reform. Hosting conferences, workshops, and public forums on the implications of deregulatory policies can further establish Vanderbilt as a hub for innovative economic thought and practice.

Relevance Score: 4 (The order presents the potential for major process changes required for Vanderbilt’s programs due to economic and regulatory impacts.)

Average Relevance Score: 4.2

Timeline for Implementation

  • Immediate upon taking office: The blocking of unfinalized Biden-era rules was executed as soon as President Trump took office.
  • Within the next 1–2 months: Consumers are expected to see price relief on certain goods (e.g., egg prices) as noted in recent economic measures.

The shortest timeline is immediate, implying an urgent action requirement.

Relevance Score: 5

Impacted Government Organizations

  • Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): The EPA is directly impacted by the rollback of tailpipe emission rules for light-duty and medium-duty vehicles, part of the administration’s deregulatory agenda that targets regulatory cost savings.
  • Department of Transportation (DOT): The DOT is affected through its Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, which are being revised to achieve significant savings as outlined in the memo.
  • Federal Agencies (across the government): The directive establishing a 10-to-1 deregulatory initiative applies broadly to any federal agency proposing new rules or guidance, requiring the elimination of multiple existing regulations, thus affecting the entire federal rulemaking framework.

Relevance Score: 5 (Directive applies across the entire government.)

Responsible Officials

  • Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) – Charged with implementing the rollback of tailpipe emission rules, a key element of the deregulatory effort.
  • Secretary of Transportation – Responsible for executing the revised Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards directive.
  • Agency Heads of Federal Regulatory Agencies – Tasked with enforcing the 10-to-1 deregulatory initiative by ensuring that any proposed new rule or guidance document is accompanied by the elimination of 10 existing rules or guidance documents.

Relevance Score: 4 (Directives affect agency heads with substantial policy execution responsibilities.)