Progress on the Situation at Our Northern Border

February 3, 2025

Presidential Actions

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Action Summary

Background and Threat Assessment: President determines that Canada’s failure to intercept drug and human traffickers and seize illicit drugs poses an unusual and extraordinary threat to U.S. national security, foreign policy, and economy under IEEPA authority.
Tariff Measures: Initially imposed ad valorem tariffs on Canadian products; however, the additional 25% tariff (and 10% on energy products) is paused until March 4, 2025, to assess the situation.
Immediate Steps and Exemptions: Recognizes that Canada has taken cooperative steps to address illegal migration and drug trafficking, leading to a pause in certain tariff implementations and the withdrawal of specific exemptions related to goods loaded at a port of entry.
Interagency Assessment: The Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with top national security and foreign affairs officials, will continue to evaluate the border situation during the tariff pause.
Contingency Provision: If the crises worsen or Canada’s measures prove insufficient, the President may promptly reinstate the tariffs as originally outlined.
Legal and Administrative Provisions: Includes severability of provisions; confirms that the order does not impair executive department authorities or grant enforceable rights to any party against the United States.

Risks & Considerations

The Executive Order’s imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods, if enacted, could lead to increased costs for goods and services that Vanderbilt University may procure from Canada. This could affect budget allocations and financial planning.
The pause on tariffs until March 4, 2025, provides a temporary reprieve, but the uncertainty surrounding the situation could impact long-term strategic planning, particularly for departments reliant on international collaborations or resources.
There is a potential risk of strained diplomatic relations between the United States and Canada, which could affect cross-border academic partnerships and research collaborations that Vanderbilt University may have with Canadian institutions.
The focus on national security and border control may lead to increased scrutiny and regulatory requirements for international students and faculty, potentially affecting Vanderbilt’s international community and its recruitment efforts.

Impacted Programs

Vanderbilt’s International Programs may need to reassess partnerships and collaborations with Canadian institutions to ensure compliance with any new regulations or tariffs that may be implemented.
The Office of Financial Affairs might need to evaluate the financial implications of potential tariffs on goods and services sourced from Canada, adjusting budgets and procurement strategies accordingly.
Vanderbilt’s Research Centers that engage in cross-border studies or projects with Canadian counterparts may face challenges in maintaining these collaborations if diplomatic tensions rise.
The Office of International Student and Scholar Services could see an impact on visa processing times and requirements for Canadian students and scholars, necessitating additional support and resources.

Financial Impact

The potential implementation of tariffs could lead to increased costs for imported goods and services from Canada, affecting Vanderbilt’s operational expenses and financial planning.
Uncertainty regarding the future of U.S.-Canada trade relations may necessitate contingency planning and financial reserves to mitigate potential disruptions in supply chains.
Vanderbilt may need to explore alternative suppliers or partners to mitigate the impact of tariffs, which could involve additional costs and logistical considerations.
Changes in international trade policies could influence the university’s investment strategies and financial risk assessments, particularly in relation to endowments and international assets.

Relevance Score: 3 (The order presents moderate risks involving compliance and potential financial impacts on university operations.)

Key Actions

Vanderbilt’s Office of Federal Relations should monitor developments related to the imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods, as these could impact research collaborations and partnerships with Canadian institutions. Understanding the potential economic implications will be crucial for strategic planning.
The Department of Political Science should analyze the geopolitical implications of the executive order, particularly how it affects U.S.-Canada relations. This analysis can provide insights into broader international policy trends that may influence Vanderbilt’s global engagement strategies.
Vanderbilt’s Center for International Business should assess the potential impact of paused tariffs on trade and economic activities. This assessment can help identify opportunities for expanding international business programs and partnerships.

Opportunities

The executive order presents an opportunity for Vanderbilt’s Law School to explore legal research on international trade laws and the implications of emergency economic powers. This research can enhance the university’s expertise in international law and policy.
Vanderbilt can leverage its expertise in public policy to engage in discussions about the effectiveness of international cooperation in addressing cross-border issues such as drug trafficking and migration. Hosting forums or workshops on these topics can position Vanderbilt as a thought leader in international policy solutions.

Relevance Score: 3 (The order requires some adjustments to processes or procedures, particularly in monitoring international relations and trade impacts.)

Average Relevance Score: 3.6

Timeline for Implementation

Additional tariff rates on energy and other goods are paused and will not take effect until March 4, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time.
If the illegal migration and illicit drug crises worsen, the tariffs described will be implemented immediately.

Relevance Score: 5

Impacted Government Organizations

Department of Homeland Security (DHS): The Secretary of Homeland Security is explicitly tasked with assessing the situation at the northern border, making DHS a central agency in implementing and monitoring this executive order.
Department of State: The Secretary of State is consulted in the assessment process, ensuring that foreign policy considerations regarding Canada are evaluated.
Department of Justice (DOJ): The Attorney General is involved in the ongoing assessment and potential follow-up actions, linking legal and enforcement measures to the order.
National Security Council (NSC): Represented by the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, this body plays a key role in advising and coordinating national security responses.
Office of Management and Budget (OMB): Although not directly implementing the order, the OMB’s Director is noted in the general provisions to ensure that budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals remain unaffected, indicating its oversight role.

Relevance Score: 2 (3-5 agencies are impacted by the order.)

Responsible Officials

Secretary of Homeland Security – Charged with leading the assessment of the situation at the northern border, in consultation with key partners.
Secretary of State – Provides consultation and supports the assessment efforts regarding international cooperation and border security.
Attorney General – Engages in legal review and offers guidance on security measures during the ongoing assessment.
Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs – Advises on national security implications and contributes to the evaluation process.
Assistant to the President for Homeland Security – Collaborates with other officials to assess and respond to border-related threats.

Relevance Score: 5 (Directives impact cabinet-level officials and senior White House advisors, indicating high-level coordination on national security and border policy.)